The Impact of Cell Phones

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Ripped from Daily Kos

Um, vote Hope not fear

Republicans celebrate their incompetence
by kos
Sat Oct 30th, 2004 at 19:56:54 GMT

No surprise, but the Bush people are giddy as can be that they've failed to capture or kill Osama.
"We want people to think 'terrorism' for the last four days," said a Bush-Cheney campaign official. "And anything that raises the issue in people's minds is good for us."
A senior GOP strategist added, "anything that makes people nervous about their personal safety helps Bush."

He called it "a little gift," saying it helps the President but doesn't guarantee his reelection.

And as the Chicken Littles among us run around in a blind panic, note that Fox News's pollster reported that Bush's numbers have gone down since the OBL tape aired. (Poll here. Info that the post-OBL numbers for Bush were down came from the broadcast.)
I'm not sure why Republicans think the American voters will reward incompetence.

So Typical of Monkey

TIMELINE OF BUSH’S DAY OCTOBER 29, 2004


1. BUSH KNEW CONTENTS OF BIN LADEN TAPE BEFORE FIRST EVENT TODAY

According to pool report, Bush was briefed on flight to Manchester. “Pool report #5, 10/29/04: Toledo to Columbus, Ohio. Two more facts. After we landed in Columbus, Scott said Bush was informed of the tape this morning on the flight up to Manchester. Karen Hughes said Bush has not spoken to Kerry about the tape.”


2. IN FIRST SPEECH OF THE DAY, BUSH DOES NOT ATTACK KERRY


Backup: “BUSH in Manchester, NH at 10:45 AM: Bush will make remarks at a "NH Victory 2004" rally in Manchester, NH at the Verizon Wireless Arena at 10:45 AM. [White House, 10/27/04]”


3. IN SECOND SPEECH, BUSH ATTACKS KERRY, PLAYING POLITICS WITH WAR ON TERROR:

“If you believe that America should lead with strength and purpose and confidence in our ideals, I would be honored to have your support, and I am asking for your vote. There are big differences between us as to how to best protect our country. The security of our families is at stake during this election. Senator Kerry says that the war on terror is primarily a law enforcement and intelligence-gathering operation. He says that America must submit to what he calls a global test.

I'm not making that up. (Laughter.) He was standing right about here when he said it during one of the debates. (Laughter.) As far as I can tell, that means our country must get permission from foreign capitals before we act in our own defense. That's what the global test says to me.” [White House release of remarks, 10/29/04]

4. IN TOLEDO EVENT, BUSH AGAIN ATTACKS KERRY


BUSH: "In this campaign, there are big differences about how to protect America's families. One time in our debate, my opponent said America must submit to what he calls a global test before we commit force. … My opponent says that September the 11th did not change him much at all. And that's clear in his policies. He believes that the war on terror is primarily a law enforcement and intelligence-gathering operation. September the 11th changed me. I remember that day when I was at Ground Zero on September the14th, 2001. I'll never forget the sights; I'll never forget the sounds. I remember the workers in hard hats yelling at me at the top of their lungs, "Whatever it takes. I remember the first responder -- I can't remember if he was a firefighter or a policeman -- who came out of the rubble, and he grabbed me by the arm and he looked me square in the eye, and he said, "Do not let me down." Ever since that day, I've gotten up every morning thinking about how to better protect our country. I will never relent in defending America, whatever it takes.” (Applause.)

“This election comes down to some clear choices -- five clear choices for America's family. The first clear choice is the most important because it concerns the security of your family. All progress on every other issue dependson the safety of our citizens. This will be the first presidential election since September the 11th, 2001. Americans will go to the polls in a time of war and ongoing threats, unlike any we have faced before. The terrorists who killedthousands of innocent people are still dangerous, and they are determined. The outcome of this election will set the direction of the war against terror. The most solemn duty of the American President is to protect the American people. (Applause.) If America shows uncertainty or weakness during these troubling times, the world will drift toward tragedy. This is not going to happen on my watch. … During the last 20 years in key moments of challenge and decision for America, Senator Kerry has chosen the position of weakness and inaction. With that record, he stands in opposition not just to me, but to the great tradition of the Democratic Party. The party of Franklin Roosevelt, the party of Harry Truman, the party of John Kennedy is rightly remembered for confidence and resolve in times of war and hours of crisis. Senator Kerry has turned his back on "pay any price" and "bear any burden," and he's replaced those commitments with "wait and see" and "cut and run."

BUSH in Toledo, OH at 4:10 PM: Bush will make remarks in Toledo, OH at a "OH Victory 2004" rally at the SeaGate Convention Center at 4:10 PM.
[White House, 10/27/04]


5. BEFORE GETTING ON PLANE, BUSH GIVES UNIFYING STATEMENT ON BIN LADEN TAPE


BUSH: “Earlier today I was informed of the tape that is now being analyzed by America's intelligence community. Let me make this very clear: Americans will not be intimidated or influenced by an enemy of our country. I'm sure Senator Kerry agrees with this. I also want to say to the American people that we're at war with these terrorists and I am confident that we will prevail. Thank you very much. Thank you.”

Its Official

I am now officially registered to vote in the state of Pennsylvania. I can now do my part, which makes me very happy, and also give me the opportunity not to do the Please vote for Kerry because I can't post.

I was very deflated when that tape of Osama came out last night. It was just the perfect thing to swing this election in Shrub's favor. I disagree with some of my other friends that say that President Monkey pulled this out at the last minute as some propaganda piece to get him elected. Too many coincidences for all that to fall in perfect place.

But now at least I can say, Hello No Shrub, you are not going to take Pennsylvania!

Weapons Cache

Whoopsiet r u t h o u t - Video Shows U.S. Troops at Iraq Weapons Cache

Im trying

to not get to excited, but I can't help being just a little motivated by the Democrats trotting out Bruce, Bubba and other illuminaries. I feel momenmtum, I just hope it carries through, because I know I am going to be depressed, I can see it already.

Ripped off from Olbermann

I loved this story, which I have heard before, but I loved it for the last line, which just goes to show you can really throw all this out the window in the end.

Election to be decided Sunday (Keith Olbermann)



New York— Well, so much for saving the Bill O’Reilly tapes. We got up to about $175,000 in your pledges (excuse me for a 1970ism, but how far out is that?) but we couldn’t top Bill O’Reilly, who may have paid a year’s salary ($2M-$10M, says The New York Daily News) to keep the tapes from showing up at Tower Records. We’ll have to settle for those lovely transcripts and the knowledge that you can never get all the toothpaste back in the tube, nor all the soap out of the loofah.

We now rejoin the election, already in progress.

And, as teased here these last two days, we might be told Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, or not until January 15th, but, if history holds, we will know by around 4 p.m. EST Sunday who will be president next year. There are many irrelevant indicators out there on which to hang a forecast (the NASCAR dads, the stock market, Robert Novak), but to my knowledge only one logical fallacy has stood the test of time. So here goes.

By definition, the logical fallacy, of course is simply this: Event A occurs. Then Event B occurs. Therefore, Event A caused Event B. Obviously, it’s simply not true. Nonetheless, when the presidential election is this close, we look for anything and everything that might predict the outcome— whether common-sense or logically fallacious.

And as logical fallacies go, we are privileged to have a doozy, one that seems to have correctly predicted the last seventeen Presidential Elections.

Terror? The economy? The incumbent’s final rating in the Gallup poll? Turnout in Ohio?

Nope.

It’s the Washington Redskins.

The football team with the politically incorrect name has been anything but incorrect in presaging which party will win the White House. The franchise began its life in Boston in 1932, when George Preston Marshall bought a dormant team that had gone belly-up in Newark. Originally named after the baseball team in town— the Braves— they were re-christened the Redskins in 1933, and thus it would not be until November 1st, 1936, that the ‘Skins played their first game during an election season.

In their last game home before the vote, the Boston Redskins beat the Chicago Cardinals 13 to 10. And two days later, Franklin Roosevelt was reelected president. By the time FDR ran again in 1940, Marshall had moved the Redskins to Griffith Stadium in Washington. And, again, in their last home game before that election, the Redskins beat Pittsburgh 37-10, and Roosevelt was returned to office.

On November 5th, 1944, it was Cleveland at Washington. Redskins won 14-10. Two days later, Roosevelt was re-re-reelected. And four years later, they repeated the trick, preceding Harry Truman’s unexpected holding of the White House for the Democrats. The Redskins were now 4-0 in their “election day games”— and so were the Democrats.

But on November 2nd, 1952, the Redskins, in their last home game before the vote, lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 24-23. And days later, Democrat Adlai Stevenson lost the presidency to Dwight Eisenhower. In '56, it was a pre-election home victory for Washington, and a re-election for Ike.

And in 1960, the tanking Redskins were clobbered in that last home game before the vote, by Cleveland, by 21 points. Nine days later, it was John F. Kennedy over Richard Nixon, by about 21 votes. And by now, the pattern had emerged. If the Redskins won their final home game before a presidential election, the incumbent party kept the White House. If the Redskins lost that game, so did the party in power.

And this, remarkably, has held up:

1964: Skins 27, Bears 20. Lyndon Johnson retains the office.

1968: Washington loses the last home game before the vote, to the New York Giants. The Democrats fall out of power, in favor of Richard Nixon

1972: Skins win; so does Nixon.

1976: Washington loses to Dallas; Republican Gerald Ford loses to Democrat Jimmy Carter.

1980: They lose again; Carter loses to Republican Ronald Reagan.

1984: Washington wins, Reagan wins again.

1988: Washington wins, George W. Bush wins.

1992: Washington loses to the Giants 24 to 7, and the incumbent party is bounced again: Bush out, Clinton in.

1996: Clinton's re-election is foretold: the Redskins win their final home game before the vote, against Indianapolis.

Going into the Bush-Gore race of 2000, the outcome of Washington's last home game before the election had coincided perfectly for 16 consecutive games, and 16 consecutive elections: 10 Redskins wins, each of which is followed by the incumbent president and/or party retaining the office, and six Redskins losses, each of which is followed by the incumbent president and/or party losing the office.

On October 30th, 2000, the Washington Redskins, with, to that point, 6 victories and 2 losses, hosted the Tennessee Titans, who had 6 victories and 1 loss. In betting circles it was a virtual toss-up, with a slight edge to Washington because it was playing at home. The Redskins scored first and led 7-0, giving an early hint that the Democrats would retain the White House. But Tennessee rallied to go in front 20-7, and hold on for a 27-21 win. It’s a six-point victory, and, six weeks later, a five-electoral-vote victory for George W. Bush— of the party that had been out of office, the Republicans.

Now it would be really spooky if those 17 games had all surprises, upsets as they call them. I was disappointed to find, after having gone back and calculated won-lost records and intangibles, that, in fact, all but three times the Redskins were favored to win and did, or they were expected to lose and did. Then again, how many elections in that same span have really been upsets? Truman, anecdotally if not truly; maybe Reagan over Carter, probably Bush over Gore— and no, the Redskins’ game upsets do not perfectly coincide with the election upsets.

Still, it's some streak. The Redskins have played home games before 17 Presidential Elections, and only 17 Presidential Elections, and their results have easily and without qualification forecast the outcomes of all 17.

And now for the 64-billion dollar question. When is/was the Redskins’ last game before this year's election? The one in which the prophecy says, if they win, George Bush is re-elected, and, if they lose, John Kerry takes office? It’s Sunday, against the Green Bay Packers, who’ve won two in a row. Who play in Lambeau Field— which Senator Kerry infamously misidentified earlier in the campaign as Lambert Field. The Redskins, meanwhile, have already suffered a four-game losing streak and found that the return of Coach Joe Gibbs (himself a NASCAR owner and presumably a NASCAR dad) has not been the panacea Washington sports fans always expect as if it was an unfunded federal mandate.

Oddsmakers favor Green Bay by two or two-and-a-half points, which, as any politician— or football gambler— can tell you, is well inside the margin of error.

But this is an ironclad sports tradition:

Skins win, incumbents stay in;

Skins lose, incumbents are old news.

An ironclad sports tradition, just like the fact that in 122 years of post-season competition, no baseball team has ever come back from down three-nothing to win a playoff series.

Oh, wait— didn’t somebody just do that?

New Name, same great taste

I have decided to go to a pen name. I mean, I don't share anything too controversial, or overally personal on this thing, but you never ever know who wanders onto these things. So meet Sparky :+)

Arizona in the forefront.

Ground War 2004 I remember the Oregon story, but I was on vacation I think, so I couldnt follow up, but as usual, Peggy Noonan is a supreme IDIOT

James Baker's Double Life

James Baker's Double LifeOk this is a long one, trust me...

The Carlyle Group - Convenient

The Carlyle Group - Former World Leaders and Washington Insiders Make Billions from the War on TerrorismYes it is old news, but maybe it will get someones blood boiling somewhere that didnt hear about it yet.

Barak Obama speech

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A scam in NH

So they will let you register to vote as a student in NH, if you switch your domicile, sounds harmless enough.MSNBC - Students decry registration problems Until you realize that by switching your domicile, you have to reup your license and registration, which means more $$$ for the state. You will never guess which party controls the state congress that passed this "unique" law

Votergasm.org dangles sex, not chads

If Mr Limbaugh just went away this thing would have fizzled up and dyed.MSNBC - Votergasm.org dangles sex, not chads Of course, just the thought of Limbaugh and sex would make anyone withold sex I think.

I was in there somewhere 

Could Either Bush draw this crowd? 

Taking a Dim View of Politicking Luminaries (washingtonpost.com)

We're saved, Ashton is behind our guy!!Taking a Dim View of Politicking Luminaries (washingtonpost.com)Too much??

More Thoughts on Bubba's return

Clinton Returns to Stand by Kerry Ok maybe its a bit partisan in nature, but with 8 days left I don't give a chit

Help from Bloggers

Ok, I could use some help from my readers (what few I have) and fellow bloggers. The gf and I have an anniversary coming up this weekend, and with her birthday coming up next month I am at a loss for ideas, so any help?